Review'd: 2024 Predictions
What actually happened?
At the dawn of 2024, armed with caffeine and a decent audacity, I made few predictions about the year ahead. Not because I thought I had a hotline to the universe, but because stirring the pot of conversation is far more fun than playing it safe.
As we close out the year, it’s time to sit down, look back, and ask: How did I do? Did I call the shots or end up shooting blanks?
Think of this as the postgame analysis for my "2024 S-Wave Predictions" article—a mix of accountability, data, and a healthy dose of humor. Whether I hit the bullseye or ended up somewhere in the parking lot, it’s all part of the ride. So, buckle up!
Sports in 2024: Breakthroughs and Game Changers
1. Athletics at the Center Stage
Prediction: Athletics would dominate 2024 sports, with the European Championships in Rome and Paris Olympics sparking a global surge in viewership and participation.
Outcome: Partially Accurate
The Paris Olympics indeed showcased athletics as a central spectacle. In the United States, track and field events attracted significant viewership, with millions tuning in to watch marquee events such as the men's and women's 100m finals. NBC reported an average of 30.2 million viewers across all Olympic events, indicating substantial interest in athletics among other sports.
In Europe, the European Athletics Championships held in Rome achieved record-breaking broadcast figures. The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) reported that its members delivered over 1,200 hours of live coverage across television and streaming platforms, engaging tens of millions of viewers.
However, as highlighted by a Financial Times article, sustaining this level of engagement beyond major events remains a challenge. The sport often struggles to maintain visibility and profitability outside the Olympic spotlight, with limited television broadcasts and a lack of funding cited as key obstacles.
Takeaway: While athletics captivates audiences during major events, the sport faces challenges in maintaining consistent engagement and profitability year-round.
2. African Nations' Competitiveness
Prediction: African countries would secure their highest-ever Olympic medal count, dominating in track and field.
Outcome: Accurate
It was a banner year for African athletes. The continent racked up a record 39 medals at the Paris Olympics, crushing the previous high of 32 in Tokyo. With Kenya (11 medals - 4 golds), Algeria (4 medals - 2 golds), and South Africa (6 medals - 1 gold) topping the rankings.
Takeaway: This wasn’t just about medals—it’s a statement about Africa’s rising prominence in global sports. With investments in youth programs and infrastructure, expect this trend to keep gaining momentum.
3. Women’s Basketball Spotlight
Prediction: Women’s basketball would have a breakout year, led by stars like Caitlin Clark.
Outcome: Accurate
Caitlin Clark didn’t play in the Olympics, but - frankly - she didn’t need to. Her rookie WNBA season was a ratings juggernaut, helping the league average 657,000 viewers per game—a 24-year high.
Just to quote a few numbers from Front Office Sports:
• Indiana Fever attendance up 319%
• AP WNBA Rookie of the Year
• Most PTS, AST, 3PM by a rookie ever
• WNBA merch sales up 450%, led by Clark
• >100% increase in viewers across national networks
Takeaway: Women’s basketball isn’t just riding a wave; it’s making one. With stars like Clark and international interest surging, the sport’s future looks brighter than ever.
4. Olympics Basketball Summer Upset
Prediction: Canada would win gold, dethroning the U.S. Dream Team.
Outcome: Inaccurate
Turns out, LeBron, Steph, and friends had other plans. Team USA dismantled France in the final, proving that assembling a roster of legends still works. Canada’s team, hyped as a potential giant-killer, fizzled out in the quarterfinals.
Takeaway: I overreached here, but the broader narrative of Canada’s basketball growth remains valid (I believe). Stay tuned!
Media & Tech in 2024: Crossroads & Regulatory (Byte)Dance
5. AI’s Dual-Faced Year
Prediction: AI would see explosive growth early in the year, followed by a regulatory crackdown during the U.S. elections.
Outcome: Accurate
The first half of 2024 witnessed significant advancements in AI applications across various industries, with the global AI market projected to reach $184 billion in 2024 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.46% from 2024 to 2030.
However, the anticipated regulatory crackdown during the U.S. elections did not materialize as a unified global effort. While concerns over AI-generated misinformation persisted, the U.S., EU, and China did not launch a joint pact to police AI content globally. Instead, each region continued to develop and implement its own AI regulatory frameworks:
European Union
The EU AI Act, which took effect in 2024, represents the first comprehensive legal framework for AI, focusing on a risk-based classification of AI systems.
United States
In October 2023, President Biden issued a wide-reaching executive order on AI, aiming to promote innovation while addressing potential risks.
China
China has implemented measures to control AI growth while addressing ethical and security considerations, aiming to establish itself as a responsible AI superpower.
Takeaway: While AI's growth in 2024 was substantial, the idea of a global regulation still seems quite far out… US, EU, and China pursued their own regulatory approach, highlighting the complexities of achieving international consensus on AI governance.
6. TikTok’s Evolution and Music Focus
Prediction: TikTok would grow among Millennials, enhance content quality, and disrupt music streaming.
Outcome: Partially Accurate
TikTok's user demographics have evolved, with Millennials (ages 25 to 34) now representing the platform's second-largest segment. This shift has influenced content trends, with a noticeable increase in polished and aesthetically pleasing videos.
In the music arena, TikTok has solidified its role as a launchpad for emerging artists. South African singer Tyla exemplifies this trajectory; her single "Water" went viral on TikTok in August 2023, propelling her to international fame. Throughout 2024, Tyla became the first South African in 55 years to have a solo song featured on the Billboard Hot 100 and won the Top Afrobeats Artist and Top Afrobeats Song at the 2024 Billboard Music Awards.
Despite these successes, TikTok's foray into music streaming has not significantly disrupted industry giants like Spotify or Apple Music. While the platform has introduced features to integrate music discovery and streaming, it remains primarily a social media app with a strong influence on music trends rather than a standalone streaming service.
Takeaway: TikTok continues to evolve as a cultural powerhouse, shaping music trends and engaging a diverse user base. However, its ambitions in the music streaming sector have yet to pose a substantial challenge to established platforms. The platform's influence in music promotion is undeniable, but translating that into a dominant streaming service requires further work.
7. The Ban/No-Ban Year
Prediction: TikTok would avoid a U.S. ban, while X (formerly Twitter) would face restrictions.
Outcome: Mixed
TikTok “successfully” navigated 2024 without a U.S. ban, despite ongoing national security concerns. The platform implemented enhanced data privacy measures and engaged in continuous dialogue with U.S. regulators to address apprehensions regarding its Chinese ownership. However, a federal appeals court upheld a law requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok by January 19, 2025, or face a ban. TikTok has appealed to the Supreme Court, seeking an injunction to prevent the ban.
What about X? It’s surely been quite a year for its owner and key go-to-guy, Mr. Elon. And no, there was no widespread ban of the platform as I had anticipated.
Nonetheless…in Brazil, X encountered significant legal challenges. The Brazilian Supreme Federal Court suspended X's operations nationwide from August 30 to October 8, 2024, after the platform failed to appoint a legal representative in the country, a requirement under Brazilian law.
This suspension was lifted after X complied with the court's directives, including appointing a legal representative and paying imposed fines.
Takeaway: The experiences of TikTok and X in 2024 underscore the increasing regulatory scrutiny faced by social media platforms globally. Compliance with national laws and proactive engagement with regulatory bodies are essential for platforms to maintain operations and user trust in diverse geopolitical landscapes.
Human Behavior & Connection in 2024: Reclaiming Authenticity
8. Digital Deceleration Trend
Prediction: People would embrace mindful digital consumption.
Outcome: Partially Accurate
In 2024, the movement towards mindful digital consumption gained momentum, with a notable increase in digital detox initiatives. A survey conducted in Germany revealed that 84% of individuals aged 18 to 24 felt they used their smartphones excessively, prompting many to adopt digital detox practices to regain balance.
Simultaneously, the "rawdogging" trend emerged, encouraging individuals to engage in activities without digital distractions. This practice, whilst being rather extreme and humourus in its nature, gained popularity as a means to reclaim mental space in an era of constant stimulation.
Takeaway: The quest for authenticity and unfiltered experiences is evident in the digital deceleration movement and trends like rawdogging. In a hyper-connected world, individuals are increasingly valuing imperfection and genuine interactions, seeking to balance digital engagement with real-world presence.
9. Resurgence of Punk Expression
Prediction: Punk would make a comeback, rejecting curated lifestyles.
Outcome: Accurate
In 2024, the "Brat Summer" trend, fueled by Charli XCX's album Brat, ignited a cultural movement that embraced rebellious, DIY aesthetics reminiscent of punk's ethos. TikTok became a hub for this resurgence, with users adopting the "brat" persona characterized by a confident, independent, and hedonistic attitude. The term "brat" was even named Collins Dictionary's Word of the Year for 2024, reflecting its significant cultural impact.
Simultaneously, the film Saltburn introduced audiences to Venetia Catton, whose grungy, undone makeup became emblematic of the early 2000s "indie sleaze" aesthetic.
Takeaway: The revival of punk-inspired aesthetics in 2024 underscores a collective yearning to break free from perfectionism and embrace authenticity. This movement celebrates individuality and the beauty found in imperfection, resonating deeply in a society increasingly weary of curated digital personas.
Closing Thoughts: Looking Back to Look Forward
2024 was a mix of reinvention, rebellion, and curveballs—exactly what makes life interesting. As we gear up for 2025, there’s no shortage of stories waiting to unfold.
I’ve got a few ideas for what’s next… but that’s a story for another article - so stick around!